Predictions for 2007.

January 1, 2007 by mugsy.

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The close of 2006 saw the deaths of two Presidents, one with great reverence, the other disgrace. I speak of course about Gerald Ford and Saddam Hussein.

And to top things off, the 3,000th troop died on the last day of 2006.

That dichotomy sums up 2006 quite well. A mixed-bag politically, violence swelled to a crescendo in Iraq, which in turn helped drive both “Bush’s poll numbers into the toilet” and “voters to the polls” to turn control of BOTH the House AND Senate over to the Democrats. It’s a shame things in Iraq had to get SO incredibly bad before *just enough* people could bring themselves to not vote Republican for a change. The GOP has done a masterful PR job of turning “Democrat” and “Liberal” into slurs that… despite the Republican Party demonstrating the most mind-boggling incompetence AND A TOTAL LACK OF ADHERENCE TO THE VERY PRINCIPLES THEY CLAIM TO STAND FOR (”fiscal responsibility”, “smaller government”, “opposition to nation building”, etc)… many Americans still recoil with almost reflexive abhorrence to the very words “Democrat” and “Liberal”. So the political reversal this past November is no small feat indeed. But now it is time to look ahead to the coming new year and attempt to divine what it has in store for us. By category, first…

Iraq and War in the Middle East

Before the November election, Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld blamed the “recent” escalation of violence in Iraq on the Insurgency’s attempt to influence our upcoming elections. Few moments in history provide the “they just don’t get it” clarity that those comments gave the American public at that moment. If the goal of the Insurgency was to influence our November elections, someone should have told them not to start their surge back in July, and that they could stop after November 7th. Despite what the Neo-Cons would like us to think, the insurgency in Iraq couldn’t give a rats ass which political party is in charge of Congress here in the U.S.. They don’t waste their four hours of electricity a day watching CNN or reading USA Today. And almost as if to underscore the ignorance of their proclamation, the insurgency has remained in overdrive, with December closing out 2006 as the third deadliest months since the war began back in early 2003. In response to this recent uptick in violence, President Bush wants to send thousands of additional troops against the wishes of his generals on the ground… the very people he claimed to take his cue from in deciding how to proceed in Iraq.

Prediction #1: The recent surge in violence towards our troops will not only continue, but escalate with the addition of more troops. Increasing the number of U.S. troops in Iraq will only give the insurgency more targets to attack, and the recent rise in the troop death/casualty rate will continue. It took just over 12 months (from mid-March 2003 thru March 2004) to pass 600 troop deaths (605, or 1.6 deaths per day)… and that includes the initial invasion against Saddam’s Army targeting exclusively Coalition soldiers as opposed to each other in a civil war. Over 900 (929) additional troops were killed the following twelve months (from April 2004 to March 2005 - 2.5 deaths per day). The next twelve months saw another 800 troop deaths (794 - 2.1 DpD), and in the 8 months since then (from April 2006 to the present), 672 more fatalities (2.45 DpD). In the last 6 months alone, the rate has climbed 20% to more than 3 troop deaths per day (466 troops in 152 days).

Whereas the previous thousand deaths took 14 months to accumulate, the 4,000th troop fatality will likely occur on or around the November 2007 off-year elections… the official start of the 2008 Presidential primaries. The number of troops still in Iraq at that time will be equal to or greater than the the number there now (150,000). Public anger over a war we were promised might take “six days, six weeks, I doubt six months” and paid for in Iraqi oil revenues, costing “no more than $1.7 Billion dollars” will become more strident, and any candidate… Republican or Democrat… unwilling to admit publicly that going into Iraq was not only incredibly stupid, but even borderline criminal, won’t stand a snowball’s chance in Hell come 2008.

Prediction #2: Bush’s cavalier saber-rattling with Iran will draw us into a short “accidental” conflict. I say “accidental” because all of Bush’s provocations will force Iran to counter at a time when the Bush Administration is unprepared to respond. Caught off-guard and not ready to expand an already increasingly unpopular war, the conflict will be short, fought mainly through air-power, and “end” within days of beginning… that is, U.S. bombing raids will subside, but Iran will respond surreptitiously by increasing the violence against our troops in Iraq. Iran knows it can not defeat even an emaciated U.S. military in a direct conflict. They know their greatest strength is our greatest weakness… influencing events in Iraq. They will continue to exploit that weakness to great success.

Prediction #3: Afghanistan will continue to worsen. The Taliban will publicly declare it has re-seized control over most of the country. The distraction of Iraq has only allowed the violence in Afghanistan to worsen over the past four years. Despite a “quick success” with the overthrow of the Taliban and the installment of a new government favorable to the U.S., the American-backed government of Harmed Karzai has steadily lost power and influence to a resurgent Taliban. With American forces stretched to its breaking point by “Bush’s Folly” in Iraq, there are no American troops left over to quell a resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan. Though there is a greater international presence in Afghanistan than in Iraq, that “Coalition of the Willing” has shrunk ever smaller as international support for anything that appears to be aiding Bush or the U.S. have become increasingly unpopular and more isolated.

Campaign ‘08

Prediction #4: …following on that theme, a major resurgence of the Taliban in Afghanistan, will become an increasingly enormous political problem for the GOP in the run-up to the ‘08 campaign.

Prediction #5: Cheney resigns. Bush successor to be named VP. Increasingly despondent over the ouster of his good friend Rumsfeld, and coming under increasing scrutiny for past remarks about the Iraq war, the strength of the insurgency, and his fear-mongering as a means of manipulating public opinion, Vice President Cheney will resign sometime this year, citing “health reasons”. Cheney has had no desire to run for President, and with an approval rating half that of President Bush’s gutter-dredging poll numbers, couldn’t win even if he did, leaving no “obvious” successor candidate for President since LBJ said he would not run again in 1968.

As such, the Bush Administration will name *their* choice as to who should receive the GOP nomination to the office of VP, making that person almost an absolute lock for their Party’s nomination in ‘08. That person will be John McCain.

In the 2004 campaign, both sides courted McCain’s endorsement. Fellow Vietnam vet and partner in numerous POW/MIA investigations in the Senate, John Kerry was said to even consider the senator from the opposing Party as a potential running mate. Bush, after having savaged McCain in the 2000 campaign, slandering his wife, criticizing his service to his country, and being a Vietnam draft dodger who McCain had already publicly criticized Bush for being, must of had to pull out all the stops to win McCain’s endorsement in ‘04. Appealing to “Party loyalty” would not have been enough for the former candidate that tried to play up an image of being “a maverick” and “an independent thinker” that could not be bought. The obvious answer is that Bush promised to put the mighty Bush political machine behind him, almost assuring him the nomination in ‘08. The powerful friends and high-dollar campaign contributors. The “wiles” of Karl Rove, his own personal endorsement (which is worth crap now), the backing of the Evangelical Right that McCain so desperately needs and currently opposes him. Plus, he was able to get potential competitors to vow not to run… with Sherman-esque promises from Condi Rice and his brother Jeb in Florida… two notable high-profile potential competitors that have already said they have no intention to run, thus clearing the path for McCain.

Prediction #6: Hillary loses Iowa. Campaign crumbles early. While this is “technically” a 2008 prediction, the start of her downfall will come in ‘07. The Media has played up a potential Hillary Clinton Presidency since before she won her first Senatorial bid in 2002. To listen to the polls, for months, Hillary has had all but a lock on the DNC nomination. Yet public opinion where it matters most… the politically active online community… has been far less enamored with her.

Believing in her own inevitability, Senator Clinton has, for the most part, taken “support from Democrats” as a given, and has instead concentrated heavily on courting and winning over Conservative voters that wouldn’t vote for her if Jesus himself came down and endorsed her. In the process, alienating Democrats in a futile bid to attract an unwindable constituency. Those chinks in her armor have begun to appear with the groundswell of support for a possible Barak Obama candidacy, and poll-tying challenges by returning candidate John Edwards.

Still unwilling to recant her vote for the Iraq War even at this late date, and having come to President Bush’s defense on several occasions, unless something stupendously campaign transforming happens before then, Hillary’s star will continue to fall as the Iowa caucus approaches… especially if former VP Gore decides to enter the race. The public will be reminded that there has not been a Presidential election without a “Bush” on Clinton” on the top ticket since 1976 and will express its desire for change at the polls.

Prediction #7: Gas prices will surpass their “$3/gal” peak early last year to over $3.50/gal for the national average. This is especially true if the incident with Iran that I predict above comes to pass. However, if no such incident occurs, with the ‘08 primaries looming, the Bush Administration will put the sabers away just long enough to bring gas prices back down in time to help VP McCain out in the Primaries. If however, the aforementioned incident DOES occur, $4/gal gas is not out of the question sometime late this year. Doubly so if there is another disastrous hurricane season like we saw in 2005.

Prediction #8: The crisis in Darfur will start to concern more Americans, but because of Iraq, the U.S. has been unable to act for too long, finally forcing the International community to step in, with an international coalition that does NOT include the U.S. or has the U.S. coming in later with a much more subservient role, damaging American prestige throughout what is left of our supporters in the rest of the world.

Prediction #9: More Global Warming related catastrophes and transformative events will take place, impacting almost every major issue in the ‘08 campaign. From pressure to support cleaner fuels and more fuel efficient automobiles that reduce our dependency on Middle Eastern oil, to weather anomalies like Hurricane Katrina or the Canadian ice shelf the size of Manhattan that broke off in 2005 and discovered only this past week, public concern over Global Warming will even strike inroads into Conservatives’ political campaigns. This is even more so should several events occur:

• Al Gore wins the Oscar for Best Documentary with “An Inconvenient Truth“.
• Evangelicals that have started to see “concern for God’s creation” and “caring for the Earth” as a moral issue they should have been supporting all along rather than fighting.
• Al Gore enters the 2008 Presidential race.

Prediction #10: Inflation will rise significantly as the Bush Administration continues to devalue the dollar to make U.S. goods more attractive overseas. But their usual answer of cutting interest rates to quell inflation and promote spending will not be an option this time around as other countries like China and Japan become increasingly reluctant to add to George Bush’s $8 Trillion+ national debt, even holding back investment in protest over the war in Iraq and saber-rattling with Chinese ally Iran. The Bush Administration will be left with no option but to fall back on its reliance on Saudi Arabia, making the nation even more indebted to them.

I know my predictions paint a bleak picture of 2007. But bright-spots include a Democratically controlled Congress that will finally serve as a check on Bush’s abuses of Presidential power. Public support for “alternative energy”/”energy independence”, and concern over global warming, will all grow. Clarity over the failures of Conservativism will become increasingly clear to the American public and help ensure that another disastrous “Neo-Conservative resurgence” never takes place again. Trials for detainees in Guantanamo are likely to start taking place under the new Congress, and investigations into the misuse and manipulation of intelligence to incite public support for the war in Iraq will finally be investigated. All good things.

Here’s to a WISER 2007 than we had in 2006!

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